Bias until Dec FOMC:
We will be looking to continue to ride the Fed rate cuts odds increased on the markets as that is still holding most weight at the moment and will most likely continue to do so until the FOMC decision on 11 December.
The markets have been primarily pricing in the rate cut expectations 30 days well before the actual FOMC decision, there during the actual Rate decision release, we barely get any impact and we get markets repositioning for any future guidance to come. Basically a case of ‘Buy the rumour and Sell the news’’ play.
- Because at the moment, we have been seeing rate cut probabilities increasing to 85% which has been holding most weight for Gold upside and giving the greedy intuitions a reason to further buy up risk assets.
However,
- This doesn't mean that Dec is a guaranteed rate cut, and during the December FOMC, the fed may either cut rates by 25bps or Hold rates, and if there future guidance remarks are hawkish since inflation is still elevated - then we can see Profit taking on risk assets. Therefor expect to see Gold bears, DXY bulls, BTC Bears, Stock bears.
So until the actual December FOMC, If December Rate cut probabilities are still elevated (80%+), then, we can still expect Buyers in control on Risk assets, so:
- DXY - Downside.
- GOLD - Upside , potentially retest upto previous ATH’s $4380’s. Then Profit taking post FOMC.
- US Stocks - Upside on SPX to make New ATH’s and bearish wave if Dec FOMC hawkish.
- BTC - Upside to 100k, prev supply zone before Correction bearish phase.
We will be looking to continue to ride the Fed rate cuts odds increased on the markets as that is still holding most weight at the moment and will most likely continue to do so until the FOMC decision on 11 December.
The markets have been primarily pricing in the rate cut expectations 30 days well before the actual FOMC decision, there during the actual Rate decision release, we barely get any impact and we get markets repositioning for any future guidance to come. Basically a case of ‘Buy the rumour and Sell the news’’ play.
- Because at the moment, we have been seeing rate cut probabilities increasing to 85% which has been holding most weight for Gold upside and giving the greedy intuitions a reason to further buy up risk assets.
However,
- This doesn't mean that Dec is a guaranteed rate cut, and during the December FOMC, the fed may either cut rates by 25bps or Hold rates, and if there future guidance remarks are hawkish since inflation is still elevated - then we can see Profit taking on risk assets. Therefor expect to see Gold bears, DXY bulls, BTC Bears, Stock bears.
So until the actual December FOMC, If December Rate cut probabilities are still elevated (80%+), then, we can still expect Buyers in control on Risk assets, so:
- DXY - Downside.
- GOLD - Upside , potentially retest upto previous ATH’s $4380’s. Then Profit taking post FOMC.
- US Stocks - Upside on SPX to make New ATH’s and bearish wave if Dec FOMC hawkish.
- BTC - Upside to 100k, prev supply zone before Correction bearish phase.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.