The Culmination of the 2025 Bull Market: AI Mania Tipping Point
A. Geometry of the 2-Week Chart
On the 2-Week chart, price has reached the upper boundary of the 1:20 parallel channel —
the same structural angle that has defined the entire post-2020 bull cycle.
This angle rises at 20 points per 2-week bar, and the market has touched it only at major cycle culminations:
Jan 3, 2022 — Major Top
Oct 10, 2022 — Capitulation Low
Oct 23, 2023 — Structural Low
Apr 7, 2024 — Angle Retest Low
Oct 27, 2025 — Structural Top
Each contact marked the exhaustion of one cycle and the birth of another.
Today, price is pressing against this ceiling with the weakest internal motion of any prior touch.
B. Speed & Acceleration on the 2-Week Chart
The internal motion confirms the structural peak.
⚡ Speed Has Rolled Over
Speed at the February 2025 top reached 159 Market Knots.
At the October 2025 top, Speed failed to exceed that reading.
Price made higher highs while Speed made lower highs.
Higher highs with lower speed = exhaustion.
The trend is rising, but the force behind it is hollow.
🔻 Acceleration Has Already Turned Negative
Acceleration always breaks first —
it is the earliest signal of structural weakness.
Acceleration turning negative on the 2-Week chart reveals something critical:
It can go much deeper negative.
The force of the trend is collapsing before price.
Acceleration turning negative on the 2-Week chart reveals something critical:
It can go much deeper negative — the force of the trend is collapsing before price.
📉 The Unified Signal
When both Speed and Acceleration deteriorate at the highs,
the market becomes structurally vulnerable.
C. The 2-Day Chart — Short-Term Angles Breaking
Inside the broader structure, the rise has been carried by two steep geometric angles:
The $4-per-degree angle
From the Oct 27, 2023 low
(1° = 4 points)
The $8-per-degree angle
From the Apr 7, 2025 low
(1° = 8 points, the steepest of the advance)
Both angles have now broken.
This confirms what the 2-Week structure already signaled:
the completion of a cycle.
D. 2-Day Motion (Market Knots) — Internal Force Collapsing
The 2-Day chart reveals what the price action hides:
the internal engine of the trend has failed while price still sits near the highs.
⚡ Speed has imploded
Price is still hovering near peak levels
But Speed has collapsed straight downward
This is one of the strongest exhaustion signatures the Market Knots System can print
When Speed collapses while price remains elevated, the trend is no longer supported —
it is hanging at the highs without the force that once carried it and dangerously no structure beneath .
🔻 Acceleration is deeply negative
Acceleration has plunged into the deepest negative zone since 2022
The internal force behind the advance is not just fading —
it has completely reversed
Acceleration is violently negative.
This creates a structurally fragile condition:
The trend’s internal force has shut down, and price is standing on hollow ground.
2. CONVERGENCE OF CYCLES — December as the Stress Point
This breakdown occurs precisely as multiple independent cycles converge into the same temporal window —
a natural stress point in the market’s architecture.
• The 2020 Cycle — Five Years Completed
The post-pandemic cycle that began in March 2020 now enters year five —
a common terminal phase in Gann-based cycle structures.
Five-year expansions often mark major growth culminations before a structural reset.
• The 2021/2022 High — A 3-Year Echo
The December 2021–January 2022 top forms a three-year resonance window.
Markets often return to the vibration of prior highs on a three-year cadence.
Once again, we arrive in the December–January window.
• The 7-Year Cycle (2520°) — The Echo of 2018
In 2018, the market peaked early in Q4 and panicked into December
as liquidity tightened and the long structural angle exhausted.
Seven years later, in 2025, price stands in the same geometric position:
touching the top of its structure, with motion collapsing and key angles broken.
Seven-year cycles often carry the potential for panics, sharp declines, and structural breaks
when the underlying geometry reaches full extension.
3. VALUATIONS — A Market Lifted by the Few
The 2025 advance has been extraordinarily narrow.
Nine companies now represent 37.64% of the S&P 500:
NVIDIA
Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
Alphabet (GOOGL + GOOG)
Broadcom
Meta
Tesla
This is not a broad-based advance.
It is an AI megacluster lifting the entire index.
Top S&P 500 YTD Performers (AI/Tech-Linked)
And the top S&P 500 YTD performers inside the index are also AI/Tech domiannt.
Western Digital (WDC) — +208.82%
Robinhood (HOOD) — +187.98%
Seagate (STX) — +175.16%
Micron (MU) — +146.40%
Palantir (PLTR) — +104.75% (Ranked #7 on official S&P list)
Lam Research (LRCX) — +97.49% (Ranked #8 on official S&P list)
AI Mania Is the Only Engine
The market’s strongest performers — both mega-cap and mid-cap — are uniformly driven by:
AI hardware
AI compute capacity
AI storage and memory
AI cloud infrastructure
AI-driven speculation flow
This is not organic economic breadth.
It is a narrow, leveraged bet on a single technological axis, carrying the S&P to its ceiling.
A Structural Imbalance
When nearly 40% of index weight — and nearly all performance — comes from one cluster,
the structure becomes top-heavy, like a building with all its weight on a single floor.
The index reached its 2025 peak
not through collective expansion,
but because a handful of megacap Tech/AI companies propelled it upward in stalling economy.
5. SYNTHESIS — A Moment of Completion
The 2025 bull market has reached its culmination.
A cycle viscously powered by a narrow AI concentration.
The market stands at the top of its orbit,
supported by a structure whose internal beams are already failing.
Historically, this alignment produces volatility as one cycle completes and the next takes form.
Multiple independent cycles — 5-year, 3-year, and 7-year — are converging into the December/January window
Our geometric measurements indicate a contraction of prices in December and into Q1 of next year. This will initiate a price decline back toward the 1:20 angle into 2026, followed by a resumption of higher prices into 2027.
Nana Hermes —
All Things Move by Measure.
A. Geometry of the 2-Week Chart
On the 2-Week chart, price has reached the upper boundary of the 1:20 parallel channel —
the same structural angle that has defined the entire post-2020 bull cycle.
This angle rises at 20 points per 2-week bar, and the market has touched it only at major cycle culminations:
Jan 3, 2022 — Major Top
Oct 10, 2022 — Capitulation Low
Oct 23, 2023 — Structural Low
Apr 7, 2024 — Angle Retest Low
Oct 27, 2025 — Structural Top
Each contact marked the exhaustion of one cycle and the birth of another.
Today, price is pressing against this ceiling with the weakest internal motion of any prior touch.
B. Speed & Acceleration on the 2-Week Chart
The internal motion confirms the structural peak.
⚡ Speed Has Rolled Over
Speed at the February 2025 top reached 159 Market Knots.
At the October 2025 top, Speed failed to exceed that reading.
Price made higher highs while Speed made lower highs.
Higher highs with lower speed = exhaustion.
The trend is rising, but the force behind it is hollow.
🔻 Acceleration Has Already Turned Negative
Acceleration always breaks first —
it is the earliest signal of structural weakness.
Acceleration turning negative on the 2-Week chart reveals something critical:
It can go much deeper negative.
The force of the trend is collapsing before price.
Acceleration turning negative on the 2-Week chart reveals something critical:
It can go much deeper negative — the force of the trend is collapsing before price.
📉 The Unified Signal
When both Speed and Acceleration deteriorate at the highs,
the market becomes structurally vulnerable.
C. The 2-Day Chart — Short-Term Angles Breaking
Inside the broader structure, the rise has been carried by two steep geometric angles:
The $4-per-degree angle
From the Oct 27, 2023 low
(1° = 4 points)
The $8-per-degree angle
From the Apr 7, 2025 low
(1° = 8 points, the steepest of the advance)
Both angles have now broken.
This confirms what the 2-Week structure already signaled:
the completion of a cycle.
D. 2-Day Motion (Market Knots) — Internal Force Collapsing
The 2-Day chart reveals what the price action hides:
the internal engine of the trend has failed while price still sits near the highs.
⚡ Speed has imploded
Price is still hovering near peak levels
But Speed has collapsed straight downward
This is one of the strongest exhaustion signatures the Market Knots System can print
When Speed collapses while price remains elevated, the trend is no longer supported —
it is hanging at the highs without the force that once carried it and dangerously no structure beneath .
🔻 Acceleration is deeply negative
Acceleration has plunged into the deepest negative zone since 2022
The internal force behind the advance is not just fading —
it has completely reversed
Acceleration is violently negative.
This creates a structurally fragile condition:
The trend’s internal force has shut down, and price is standing on hollow ground.
2. CONVERGENCE OF CYCLES — December as the Stress Point
This breakdown occurs precisely as multiple independent cycles converge into the same temporal window —
a natural stress point in the market’s architecture.
• The 2020 Cycle — Five Years Completed
The post-pandemic cycle that began in March 2020 now enters year five —
a common terminal phase in Gann-based cycle structures.
Five-year expansions often mark major growth culminations before a structural reset.
• The 2021/2022 High — A 3-Year Echo
The December 2021–January 2022 top forms a three-year resonance window.
Markets often return to the vibration of prior highs on a three-year cadence.
Once again, we arrive in the December–January window.
• The 7-Year Cycle (2520°) — The Echo of 2018
In 2018, the market peaked early in Q4 and panicked into December
as liquidity tightened and the long structural angle exhausted.
Seven years later, in 2025, price stands in the same geometric position:
touching the top of its structure, with motion collapsing and key angles broken.
Seven-year cycles often carry the potential for panics, sharp declines, and structural breaks
when the underlying geometry reaches full extension.
3. VALUATIONS — A Market Lifted by the Few
The 2025 advance has been extraordinarily narrow.
Nine companies now represent 37.64% of the S&P 500:
NVIDIA
Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
Alphabet (GOOGL + GOOG)
Broadcom
Meta
Tesla
This is not a broad-based advance.
It is an AI megacluster lifting the entire index.
Top S&P 500 YTD Performers (AI/Tech-Linked)
And the top S&P 500 YTD performers inside the index are also AI/Tech domiannt.
Western Digital (WDC) — +208.82%
Robinhood (HOOD) — +187.98%
Seagate (STX) — +175.16%
Micron (MU) — +146.40%
Palantir (PLTR) — +104.75% (Ranked #7 on official S&P list)
Lam Research (LRCX) — +97.49% (Ranked #8 on official S&P list)
AI Mania Is the Only Engine
The market’s strongest performers — both mega-cap and mid-cap — are uniformly driven by:
AI hardware
AI compute capacity
AI storage and memory
AI cloud infrastructure
AI-driven speculation flow
This is not organic economic breadth.
It is a narrow, leveraged bet on a single technological axis, carrying the S&P to its ceiling.
A Structural Imbalance
When nearly 40% of index weight — and nearly all performance — comes from one cluster,
the structure becomes top-heavy, like a building with all its weight on a single floor.
The index reached its 2025 peak
not through collective expansion,
but because a handful of megacap Tech/AI companies propelled it upward in stalling economy.
5. SYNTHESIS — A Moment of Completion
The 2025 bull market has reached its culmination.
A cycle viscously powered by a narrow AI concentration.
The market stands at the top of its orbit,
supported by a structure whose internal beams are already failing.
Historically, this alignment produces volatility as one cycle completes and the next takes form.
Multiple independent cycles — 5-year, 3-year, and 7-year — are converging into the December/January window
Our geometric measurements indicate a contraction of prices in December and into Q1 of next year. This will initiate a price decline back toward the 1:20 angle into 2026, followed by a resumption of higher prices into 2027.
Nana Hermes —
All Things Move by Measure.
Note
📌An Alternate Arc: A Cycle That Still Points Higher Into 2026Alongside the primary structure we’ve been tracking, there is one alternate geometric cycle that deserves attention — and it’s the only pathway that could carry the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2026 without a major correction.
This pathway emerges from the $4-per-degree angle placed beneath the major weekly gap-up from Monday, May 12th, 2025.
That gap marked a structural ignition point for the market.
The reaction off that angle suggests the structure is valid and active.
On the chart you see above, this creates a secondary rising channel nested inside the broader 1:20 weekly cycle.
If price respects this interior angle and holds above it, the market may follow this alternate arc — the only one that allows:
A shallow consolidation
Re-acceleration into Q1 2026
Higher highs, eclipsing the Oct 28th top
This is not the dominant path, but it is the mathematically coherent alternative cycle still open to the market.
This chart should be followed closely.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.