Bitcoin is moving into a phase where long-term cycles matter more than whatever the market narrative happens to be this week.
And if you look at those cycles, one thing becomes clear: BTC has never avoided a major drop after making a new ATH.
1. The timing keeps repeating — almost to the day
Every big drawdown in Bitcoin’s history has lasted almost exactly the same amount of time:
Cycle 1: 371 days
Cycle 2: 378 days
Cycle 3: 378 days again
That kind of symmetry doesn’t happen by accident.
It’s a pattern driven by liquidity, leverage, miner economics and investor behavior.
Right now,
BTCUSDT is lining up with that same timing structure once more.
2. The size of corrections is falling… but still huge
Past drawdowns:
–83%
–77%
The market is more mature now — more liquidity, more derivatives depth, more institutional money — so the volatility is naturally lower.
But “lower volatility” in Bitcoin still means:
👉 –50% to –70% corrections
And a drop in that range would land BTC somewhere around $40k–$50k, which is consistent with the historical pattern.
3. Market maturity doesn’t erase Bitcoin’s cycles
Even with ETFs, institutional flows, and a stronger market structure, BTC still reacts to:
leverage resets
liquidity tightening
miner selling pressure
sentiment washouts
These things don’t disappear just because the market grows.
4. What the full cycle is pointing to
If the cycle keeps rhyming with the past:
Potential bottom: roughly late 2026, at the end of another ~370–380 day drawdown
Next peak: around 2028
Long-term target: $120k–$150k+
The rhythm remains the same:
big drop → long consolidation → explosive recovery.
Takeaway
This time isn’t different.
Even in a more “institutional” Bitcoin, the cycles still point to a >50% reset before the next major expansion.
And if you look at those cycles, one thing becomes clear: BTC has never avoided a major drop after making a new ATH.
1. The timing keeps repeating — almost to the day
Every big drawdown in Bitcoin’s history has lasted almost exactly the same amount of time:
Cycle 1: 371 days
Cycle 2: 378 days
Cycle 3: 378 days again
That kind of symmetry doesn’t happen by accident.
It’s a pattern driven by liquidity, leverage, miner economics and investor behavior.
Right now,
BTCUSDT is lining up with that same timing structure once more.2. The size of corrections is falling… but still huge
Past drawdowns:
–83%
–77%
The market is more mature now — more liquidity, more derivatives depth, more institutional money — so the volatility is naturally lower.
But “lower volatility” in Bitcoin still means:
👉 –50% to –70% corrections
And a drop in that range would land BTC somewhere around $40k–$50k, which is consistent with the historical pattern.
3. Market maturity doesn’t erase Bitcoin’s cycles
Even with ETFs, institutional flows, and a stronger market structure, BTC still reacts to:
leverage resets
liquidity tightening
miner selling pressure
sentiment washouts
These things don’t disappear just because the market grows.
4. What the full cycle is pointing to
If the cycle keeps rhyming with the past:
Potential bottom: roughly late 2026, at the end of another ~370–380 day drawdown
Next peak: around 2028
Long-term target: $120k–$150k+
The rhythm remains the same:
big drop → long consolidation → explosive recovery.
Takeaway
This time isn’t different.
Even in a more “institutional” Bitcoin, the cycles still point to a >50% reset before the next major expansion.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.