🏛️ Research Notes
Based on Chair Powell's press conference from September 17 '25, the FOMC decided to lower the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point. Since I’ve chosen to expand my research to include economic performance, I want to document the reasoning behind this decision.
The Fed remains data-dependent and is not committed to a preset policy path. The Fed cut rates primarily due to rising downside risks in the labor market, even though inflation remains above target. The decision reflects careful balancing between supporting employment and preventing inflation from becoming entrenched.
Based on Chair Powell's press conference from September 17 '25, the FOMC decided to lower the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point. Since I’ve chosen to expand my research to include economic performance, I want to document the reasoning behind this decision.
- Dual ConsiderationsEmployment: The labor market has softened. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, job gains slowed significantly (to just 29,000 per month over the past three months), and downside risks to employment have increased.
Inflation: Inflation remains elevated relative to the Fed’s 2% target. Total PCE inflation was 2.7% over the past 12 months, and core PCE was 2.9%. Recent tariff policies have also contributed to upward pressure on prices. - Shift in Risk Balance
The Fed noted that risks to employment are tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. This creates a tension between the two parts of the dual mandate.
Given the increased downside risks to employment, the Committee judged it appropriate to ease monetary policy to support the labor market. - Economic Slowdown
GDP growth moderated to around 1.5% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024.
Consumer spending slowed, though business investment improved.
Housing activity remained weak. - Response to Evolving Conditions
The Fed aims to avoid letting a one-time price increase (e.g., from tariffs) become persistent inflation, while also supporting employment.
The rate cut is seen as a step toward a more neutral policy stance to better balance the competing risks.
The Fed remains data-dependent and is not committed to a preset policy path. The Fed cut rates primarily due to rising downside risks in the labor market, even though inflation remains above target. The decision reflects careful balancing between supporting employment and preventing inflation from becoming entrenched.
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ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
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ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.