Bitcoin has bounced off of 80K while promising, the short term trend structure is still bearish. 95K and 100K are the next resistances and potential turning points respectively. IF price cannot break 100K or produce a higher low, it would be reasonable to anticipate a lower low (below 80K). A short tern bearish trend should NOT be confused with a "bear" market. This corrective move from the 126 peak is nothing more than an overdue retrace and many "experts" are simply not experienced enough to know what a real bear market is.
If you follow the general consensus on social platforms, you will have a very hard time anticipating the market, and instead always find yourself reacting. In this game, collective "wisdom" or the herd mentality is usually WRONG because they are reacting to what they see and fail to consider factors that are not so apparent. Also short term price movements (1 to 3 months) is strongly affected by SENTIMENT which is IRRATIONAL. Focusing on short time frames prevents you from recognizing the probabilities and opportunities that are slowly developing in the larger time horizons. This is where swing traders and investors should be paying the MOST attention. If the "experts" are so good, why wasn't anyone calling for this "bear market" back when Bitcoin was pushing 126K?
Bear and Bull market is too vague of a way to describe a market environment and sets the expectations that it will continue. As a CONTRARIAN, I look for strong arguments to support short term and long term risks and probabilities. This move is a simple pullback within a broader bullish structure. To better put this into perspective, consider the upcoming KEY economic drivers that will affect Bitcoin: December Federal Reserve concludes quantitative tightening (inflationary), the FOMC meeting Fed is expected to cut rates again (inflationary), over the coming year Fed is expected to start quantitative easing (inflationary). Everything points to more money in the system which will strongly benefit anything anti inflationary like Bitcoin, Gold, stocks, etc. These type of catalysts are NOT in line with a "bear" market.
Another important point is the 88K overlap that I have talked about previously. While price has briefly probed below 88K, it has only spent literally a day or two before swiftly recovering. While the short term structure is bearish, IF price cannot stay below 88K, then In my opinion there is a greater chance that Bitcoin is still within the broad Wave 4 and NOT in the broadest Wave 2 which implies Wave 5 is to follow. IF this is true. Bitcoin should have no problem breaking above 100K which will be an important test. Wave 5 can test the 126K high at minimum but keep in mind this can take months to play out. In these situations wave counts can be confusing, which is why I do NOT make decisions based on them alone, they only serve as a general guide to help shape expectations. Price structure and confirmations carry a LOT more weight.
The illustration on my chart shows the test of low and potential higher low scenario that I am anticipating for the coming two weeks. The arrow points to the key resistance that will either keep this bear structure intact, or break which will confirm we are changing back into a bullish structure (wave 4 scenario). Even if price does not reverse, I am still looking at these lows as an investment opportunity.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
If you follow the general consensus on social platforms, you will have a very hard time anticipating the market, and instead always find yourself reacting. In this game, collective "wisdom" or the herd mentality is usually WRONG because they are reacting to what they see and fail to consider factors that are not so apparent. Also short term price movements (1 to 3 months) is strongly affected by SENTIMENT which is IRRATIONAL. Focusing on short time frames prevents you from recognizing the probabilities and opportunities that are slowly developing in the larger time horizons. This is where swing traders and investors should be paying the MOST attention. If the "experts" are so good, why wasn't anyone calling for this "bear market" back when Bitcoin was pushing 126K?
Bear and Bull market is too vague of a way to describe a market environment and sets the expectations that it will continue. As a CONTRARIAN, I look for strong arguments to support short term and long term risks and probabilities. This move is a simple pullback within a broader bullish structure. To better put this into perspective, consider the upcoming KEY economic drivers that will affect Bitcoin: December Federal Reserve concludes quantitative tightening (inflationary), the FOMC meeting Fed is expected to cut rates again (inflationary), over the coming year Fed is expected to start quantitative easing (inflationary). Everything points to more money in the system which will strongly benefit anything anti inflationary like Bitcoin, Gold, stocks, etc. These type of catalysts are NOT in line with a "bear" market.
Another important point is the 88K overlap that I have talked about previously. While price has briefly probed below 88K, it has only spent literally a day or two before swiftly recovering. While the short term structure is bearish, IF price cannot stay below 88K, then In my opinion there is a greater chance that Bitcoin is still within the broad Wave 4 and NOT in the broadest Wave 2 which implies Wave 5 is to follow. IF this is true. Bitcoin should have no problem breaking above 100K which will be an important test. Wave 5 can test the 126K high at minimum but keep in mind this can take months to play out. In these situations wave counts can be confusing, which is why I do NOT make decisions based on them alone, they only serve as a general guide to help shape expectations. Price structure and confirmations carry a LOT more weight.
The illustration on my chart shows the test of low and potential higher low scenario that I am anticipating for the coming two weeks. The arrow points to the key resistance that will either keep this bear structure intact, or break which will confirm we are changing back into a bullish structure (wave 4 scenario). Even if price does not reverse, I am still looking at these lows as an investment opportunity.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.